LARRY-Market Trends in Electric-Drive Vehicles in the US - EVI March 2015 FINAL v3.pdf

Market Trends in Electric-Drive Vehicles in the U.S. 10th Electric Vehicle Initiative Workshop Beijing, China March 28-30, 2015 Larry R. Johnson, Ph.D. Yan (Joann) Zhou, Ph.D. Argonne National Laboratory Market Trends in Electric-Drive Vehicles in the US: and The Ugly The Good, The Bad, The more I thought about the topic, the more I thought the title should have a subtitle Then it occurred to me A few definitions are in order The Good Any positive market developments for electric-drive vehicles. The Bad Any market trend that is inconsistent with the national goals and objectives for electric-drive vehicles. Some trends may be good for consumers, but bad for the HEV and PEV markets. If so, they are considered bad in this presentation. The Ugly Events completely out of the hands of the automakers that adversely affect sales or market share of electric-drive vehicles. Influencers Government legislation, programs, and regulations may be viewed as good if you want to see the market for electric-drive vehicles stimulated, or bad if you think the market should operate on its own. In this presentation, I just recognize that they have influence. 10th Electric Vehicle Initiative Workshop – March 2015 3 Interesting Neither good nor bad, just interesting. The Good: Plug-in Electric Vehicles sales are growing, if somewhat erratically 10th Electric Vehicle Initiative Workshop – March 2015 4 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 D e c -1 0 J a n -1 1 F e b -1 1 M a r- 1 1 A p r- 1 1 M a y -1 1 J u n -1 1 J u l- 1 1 A u g -1 1 S e p -1 1 O c t- 1 1 N o v -1 1 D e c -1 1 J a n -1 2 F e b -1 2 M a r- 1 2 A p r- 1 2 M a y -1 2 J u n -1 2 J u l- 1 2 A u g -1 2 S e p -1 2 O c t- 1 2 N o v -1 2 D e c -1 2 J a n -1 3 F e b -1 3 M a r- 1 3 A p r- 1 3 M a y -1 3 J u n -1 3 J u l- 1 3 A u g -1 3 S e p -1 3 O c t- 1 3 N o v -1 3 D e c -1 3 J a n -1 4 F e b -1 4 M a r- 1 4 A p r- 1 4 M a y -1 4 J u n -1 4 J u l- 1 4 A u