News Analysis: Chance of Türkiye-Syria rapprochement grows, rocky road ahead: experts-Xinhua

News Analysis: Chance of Türkiye-Syria rapprochement grows, rocky road ahead: experts

Source: Xinhua

Editor: huaxia

2022-08-24 00:20:15

by Burak Akinci

ANKARA, Aug. 23 (Xinhua) -- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has signalled a rapprochement with the Syrian government following a decade of ruptured ties, but a breakthrough in ties faces stumbling blocks, experts said.

"There is a need to take further steps with Syria," Erdogan told reporters last week, adding diplomacy between states could never be fully severed.

"We don't have such an issue whether to defeat (Syrian President Bashar) al-Assad or not," he said, using an exceptionally soft tone toward the Syrian president.

Since the beginnings of the civil war in Syria in 2011, the Turkish leader has been calling for the removal of the Syrian president, backing the rebel forces in the country. His latest remarks, however, signalled a change of attitude on Syria.

THAWING OF TIES DIFFICULT

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu last week confirmed that he briefly met with his Syrian counterpart Faisal Mekdad in October last year in Serbia's capital Belgrade, the first such high-level contact since 2011.

The Turkish top diplomat further said on Tuesday that his country does not have any precondition for dialogue with the Syrian government if the talks are "goal-oriented."

Once an ally of Damascus, Turkey cut its ties with the Syrian government in the wake of the civil war and has maintained an 11-year involvement in the conflict on the side of the opposition.

The NATO country has launched several cross-border operations into northern Syria, targeting Kurdish forces linked to the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) designated by the Turkish government as a terror organization.

Türkiye also controls swaths of territory in northern Syria together with allied Syrian rebels.

Experts believe that the thawing of the Turkish-Syrian ties will be difficult because of the wide range of differences between the two states.

"It will not be an easy process. It will take time and is expected to be a road riddled with intense problems," Oytun Orhan, a Middle East expert at the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), told Xinhua.

"We are faced with a deep lack of trust between the two neighbours," Orhan said.

He explained that the relations between Syria and Türkiye have been totally broken over a decade, with both sides supporting anti-government organizations which pose a threat to their respective national security.

The expert added that any deal to resolve Türkiye's Syrian refugees crisis is inevitably linked to a dialogue and coordination with the Syrian government.

However, domestic pressure is growing on Ankara to improve relations with Damascus as the public grows increasingly hostile to the nearly 4 million Syrian refugees in the country amid serious economic woes.

"The road to a potential reconciliation will be a rocky one," as many countries are involved directly or by their proxies in the Syrian conflict and have divergent agendas, a former Turkish ambassador told Xinhua.

"While most of the actors in Syria want to bring an end to the crisis at the point where it stands currently, their proposed solutions have thus far not born fruit," said the diplomat who didn't want to be named.

DIALOGUE URGED ON SYRIAN REFUGEES ISSUE

Many Turkish experts who have urged Ankara to restart negotiations with Damascus hailed Erdogan's latest remarks.

"This is a very important announcement. Türkiye should without delay restart dialogue with Syria in order to repatriate millions of displaced Syrians," said Naim Baburoglu, a former army general and foreign policy analyst.

Baburoglu said Türkiye suffered from severing its ties with Syria and should now mend relations with its southern neighbour to pacify the "U.S.-sponsored Kurdish threats emanating from northern Syria."

Hasan Unal, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Maltepe University, echoed the remarks, saying Türkiye has a lot to gain from a rapprochement with the Syrian government.

"Ankara and Damascus could agree on a protocol to repatriate millions of Turkish-based Syrian refugees back to their places of origin and also renew a 1998 agreement to fight against the PKK and its Syrian affiliates," Unal said.

Türkiye has accused its NATO ally, the United States, and European nations of "supporting" anti-Turkey Kurdish rebels in Syria.

TURKISH THREAT OF NEW INCURSION

Erdogan's remarks on a fence-mending between the two neighbours comes at a time when he has threatened to launch a new military incursion into Syria against the Kurdish People's Protection Units, which is seen by Ankara as the Syrian branch of the PKK group.

Officials close to Erdogan also signalled a potential dialogue with al-Assad.

"Relations with Damascus may become direct, and see an increase in level," local press quoted Hayati Yazici, deputy chairman of Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party, as saying.

Yazici neither confirmed nor denied reports on a possible meeting between Erdogan and Assad, noting increased dialogue between Ankara and Damascus may lead to the end of the over decade-long war in Syria.

"I'm not in a position to say 'It will never happen.' It will begin from some point, and hopefully, the level (of contacts) may increase," he said, in response to the unconfirmed reports on an Erdogan-Assad summit.